The Courts have spoken. Governments,1.5C is a legal redline

Earlier this year, the International Court of Justice – the world’s highest court – delivered its unanimous decision: keeping warming below 1.5°C is not just a target, but the baseline that must be hard-wired across all negotiation streams. It is the line between survival and catastrophe for many communities; a matter of life and death. Every State must use all means at its disposal to stop climate harms (and stay away from false solutions). We can’t be serious about 1.5°C while still investing in oil, gas, and coal; that’s like saying you’re on a diet while holding a doughnut in both hands. The 1.5°C limit is based on science, and it is the law; it isn’t a good vibe that you can manifest.

Recent reports detail glaring gaps in NDCs, emissions reduction, finance, and the world’s capacity to adapt, which open the possibility for a disastrous overshoot, leading to devastating harms. This sobering reality requires us to urgently course-correct, and the ICJ ruling provides us with a tool to do just that. All negotiation streams must be guided by the legal and moral imperative to stay below 1.5°C to ensure compliance with international law, particularly in two crucial areas – finance and NDCs. 

Because 1.5°C is confirmed as the legal redline, climate finance must be delivered at a scale that enables the world, particularly developing countries, to meet this target. So what does this mean? The NCQG must be operationalised under the ICJ’s guidance: provision of public finance for adaptation, loss and damage, and mitigation must be drastically scaled up to ensure developed countries meet their legal obligations. Even with NDCs, countries don’t enjoy unlimited discretion, but must ensure that their NDCs are in line with countries’ fair shares to align with the 1.5°C limit, and NDC submissions that miss this must be revised (Hint: for those developed countries that did submit, you aren’t on track). This is the yardstick that COP30 must adopt to bridge the ambition, implementation, and accountability gap.

Being the first COP following the rulings from the Inter-American Court and the ICJ, ECO expects states to show up with renewed commitment to comply. Courts have validated and reaffirmed the arguments Global Majority States, Indigenous Peoples, civil society, and youth worldwide have been making for decades. 

Fossil-fuel subsidies? Bare-minimum commitments? Internationally wrongful acts? States can no longer wiggle out of legal redlines, so let’s not let them. The starting point for negotiations must be International Law and science. 

Truth isn’t a talking point. It’s a verdict. And the ICJ has already delivered the ruling. States must act and deliver. The only question left is whether leaders will live up to it. ECO will be watching.